Jaylen Waddle
WR · DEN · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (2) to tell whether the 6.5-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
In games with tagovailoa, Waddle averaged 12.9 PPG — 0.8 more than the 12.1 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 196 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 88 and 295, with a 45% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
16 games · 12.1 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @INDL | 4 | 30 | 0 | 65% | Tagovailoa | soft | 7.0 |
| 2 | NEL | 5 | 68 | 1 | 82% | Tagovailoa | mid | 17.8 |
| 3 | @BUFL | 5 | 39 | 1 | 87% | Tagovailoa | tough | 14.9 |
| 4 | NYJW | 3 | 48 | 0 | 90% | Tagovailoa | mid | 7.8 |
| 5 | @CARL | 6 | 110 | 1 | 89% | Tagovailoa | tough | 23.0 |
| 6 | LACL | 6 | 95 | 0 | 78% | Tagovailoa | tough | 15.8 |
| 7 | @CLEL | 1 | 15 | 0 | 76% | Tagovailoa | mid | 2.5 |
| 8 | @ATLW | 5 | 99 | 1 | 78% | Tagovailoa | mid | 20.9 |
| 9 | BALL | 6 | 82 | 0 | 80% | Tagovailoa | soft | 14.2 |
| 10 | BUFW | 5 | 84 | 1 | 83% | Tagovailoa | tough | 19.4 |
| 11 | WASW | 3 | 52 | 0 | 84% | Tagovailoa | soft | 8.2 |
| 13 | NOW | 3 | 40 | 0 | 92% | Tagovailoa | tough | 7.0 |
| 14 | @NYJW | 5 | 50 | 1 | 78% | Tagovailoa | mid | 18.1 |
| 15 | @PITL | 2 | 26 | 0 | 84% | Tagovailoa | soft | 4.6 |
| 16 | CINL | 5 | 72 | 0 | 71% | Ewers | tough | 12.2 |
| 17 | TBW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25%! | Ewers | mid | 0.7 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.1yd (2.8 → 2.9yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.