Joe Burrow
QB · CIN · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (1) to tell whether the 11.2-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
In games with burrow, Burrow averaged 18.2 PPG — 1.4 more than the 16.8 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 298 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 146 and 390, with a 33% chance of finishing below replacement (257).
Game log
8 games · 16.8 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Pass yd | TD | INT | Rush yd | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CLEW | 113 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 100% | Burrow | tough | 8.8 |
| 2 | JAXW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30%! | Browning | tough | 7.0 |
| 13 | @BALW | 261 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 100% | Burrow | mid | 19.2 |
| 14 | @BUFL | 284 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Burrow | tough | 23.4 |
| 15 | BALL | 225 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 100% | Burrow | mid | 5.5 |
| 16 | @MIAW | 309 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 90% | Burrow | soft | 29.0 |
| 17 | ARIW | 305 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 83% | Burrow | mid | 20.4 |
| 18 | CLEL | 236 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 99% | Burrow | tough | 21.1 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +7.6% (-1.6 → 6%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.