Tee Higgins
WR · CIN · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Likely noise: This 1.8-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±8.2), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.
In games with burrow, Higgins averaged 15.3 PPG — 1.2 more than the 14.1 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Boom/bust watch: 60% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.
Expect about 202 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 90 and 304, with a 42% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
15 games · 14.1 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CLEW | 3 | 33 | 0 | 79% | Burrow | mid | 6.3 |
| 2 | JAXW | 3 | 56 | 1 | 87% | Browning | mid | 14.6 |
| 3 | @MINL | 1 | 15 | 0 | 82% | Browning | tough | 2.5 |
| 4 | @DENL | 3 | 32 | 0 | 83% | Browning | tough | 6.2 |
| 5 | DETL | 3 | 22 | 1 | 97% | Browning | soft | 11.2 |
| 6 | @GBL | 5 | 62 | 0 | 80% | Flacco | mid | 11.2 |
| 7 | PITW | 6 | 96 | 1 | 87% | Flacco | soft | 21.6 |
| 8 | NYJL | 1 | 44 | 1 | 88% | Flacco | mid | 11.4 |
| 9 | CHIL | 7 | 121 | 2 | 82% | Flacco | soft | 33.1 |
| 11 | @PITL | 3 | 63 | 1 | 92% | Flacco | soft | 15.3 |
| 12 | NEL | 5 | 31 | 0 | 77% | Flacco | mid | 8.1 |
| 14 | @BUFL | 6 | 92 | 2 | 73% | Burrow | tough | 27.2 |
| 16 | @MIAW | 3 | 53 | 1 | 62% | Burrow | mid | 14.3 |
| 17 | ARIW | 4 | 59 | 0 | 57% | Burrow | mid | 9.9 |
| 18 | CLEL | 6 | 67 | 1 | 87% | Burrow | mid | 18.7 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.1yd (1.8 → 2yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.