TrueSplits

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · on the draft board

market valueQB8· 2,171 value· tier 28· ▼ down 59 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
17.9PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (17.9) · 16 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

17.9
Avg PPG (split)
14.9
Median week
30.2
Ceiling
3.3
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 59% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
9%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 14 chances
+1.8%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (LAC)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (LAC)
+3.3%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.90s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 17.9-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 16 games, Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336

Expect about 258 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 126 and 336, with a 50% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

16 games · 17.9 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1KCW31830320100%Herberttough27.9
2@LVW24220310100%Herberttough18.8
3DENW3001160100%Herberttough14.6
4@NYGL20312240100%Herbertmid12.5
5WASL1661160091%Herbertsoft14.6
6@MIAW2642020100%Herbertsoft18.8
7INDL42032310100%Herbertmid27.9
8MINW22731620100%Herberttough25.3
9@TENW25021571100%Herbertmid27.7
10PITW22010190100%Herbertsoft14.7
11@JAXL810121073%Herberttough3.3
13LVW151218085%Herberttough12.8
14PHIW13911660100%Herbertmid12.2
15@KCW2101100100%Herberttough10.4
16@DALW30020421100%Herbertsoft30.2
17HOUL23611370100%Herbertmid15.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +2.5% (1.9 → 4.3%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — LACvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 1 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
SF
Wk 16
@MIA
Wk 17
KC
Full season
Wk 1
ARI
Wk 2
LV
Wk 3
@BUF
Wk 4
@SEA
Wk 5
DEN
Wk 6
@KC
Wk 8
@LA
Wk 9
HOU
Wk 10
@BAL
Wk 11
NYJ
Wk 12
NE
Wk 13
@TB
Wk 14
@LV
Wk 15
SF
Wk 16
@MIA
Wk 17
KC
Wk 18
@DEN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.