Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN · on the draft board

market valueWR5· 7,842 value· tier 6· ▲ up 231 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR

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No games match this split. Loosen a condition to see his real number — TrueSplits never invents one.

SeasonLive · Free

Which QB was under centerLive · Free

Game script & venueLive · Free

Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free

Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)

any snaps

Honest filtersLive · Free

Scoring

Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games

Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

Avg PPG (split)

Median week

Ceiling

Floor

Usage & role context — 2025Prior season

14%

Red-zone role

share of team RZ opps · 19 chances

-1.6%

Team pass rate (PROE)

balanced play-caller (MIN)

13%

Team play-action

of dropbacks (MIN)

10.4

Target depth (aDOT)

avg air yards per target

3.2 yd

Separation

avg at the catch point

38%

Air-yards share

of the team's intended air yards

+0.8

YAC vs expected

yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 11.9-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 0 games, Justin Jefferson averaged 0 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 250

11227% bust40% @1.5x377

Expect about 250 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 112 and 377, with a 27% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 11.9 PPG avg

Wk	Opp	Rec	Yds	TD	Snap	QB	Def	Pts
1	@CHIW	4	44	1	98%	McCarthy	soft	14.8
2	ATLL	3	81	0	100%	McCarthy	mid	11.1
3	CINW	5	75	0	80%	Wentz	tough	12.5
4	@PITL	10	126	0	100%	Wentz	soft	22.6
5	@CLEW	7	123	0	100%	Wentz	mid	19.3
7	PHIL	5	79	0	99%	Wentz	tough	12.9
8	@LACL	7	74	0	88%	Wentz	tough	14.4
9	@DETW	6	47	1	95%	McCarthy	soft	16.7
10	BALL	4	37	0	100%	McCarthy	soft	7.7
11	CHIL	5	61	0	100%	McCarthy	soft	11.1
12	@GBL	4	48	0	100%	McCarthy	mid	8.8
13	@SEAL	2	4	0	96%	Brosmer	tough	2.4
14	WASW	2	11	0	80%	McCarthy	soft	3.1
15	@DALW	2	22	0	96%	McCarthy	soft	4.2
16	@NYGW	6	85	0	95%	McCarthy	soft	14.5
17	DETW	4	30	0	98%	Brosmer	soft	7.0
18	GBW	8	101	0	76%	McCarthy	mid	18.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025

Wk 1Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.1yd (3.2 → 3.1yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — MINvs WR · 2025 defenses

Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 2 soft, 0 tough

Wk 15

DET

Wk 16

WAS

Wk 17

@NYJ

Full season

Wk 1

Wk 2

@CHI

Wk 3

@TB

Wk 4

MIA

Wk 5

@NO

Wk 7

IND

Wk 8

@DET

Wk 9

BUF

Wk 10

@GB

Wk 11

@SF

Wk 12

ATL

Wk 13

CAR

Wk 14

@NE

Wk 15

DET

Wk 16

WAS

Wk 17

@NYJ

Wk 18

CHI

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.