Jonathan Taylor
RB · IND · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Signal: This 11.9-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±12.4).
In games with jones, Taylor averaged 24.8 PPG — 3.5 more than the 21.3 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 258 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 84 and 422, with a 22% chance of finishing below replacement (148).
Game log
17 games · 21.3 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rush yd | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIAW | 71 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 71% | Jones | mid | 12.8 |
| 2 | DENW | 165 | 0 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 93% | Jones | tough | 29.5 |
| 3 | @TENW | 102 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 79% | Jones | mid | 32.8 |
| 4 | @LAL | 76 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 87% | Jones | mid | 14.6 |
| 5 | LVW | 66 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 74% | Jones | mid | 31.6 |
| 6 | ARIW | 123 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 92% | Jones | soft | 23.7 |
| 7 | @LACW | 94 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 87% | Jones | tough | 34.2 |
| 8 | TENW | 153 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 75% | Jones | mid | 37.4 |
| 9 | @PITL | 45 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 79% | Jones | tough | 7.7 |
| 10 | ATLW | 244 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 91% | Jones | mid | 49.6 |
| 12 | @KCL | 58 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 90% | Jones | tough | 8.6 |
| 13 | HOUL | 85 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 98% | Jones | tough | 15.1 |
| 14 | @JAXL | 74 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74% | Leonard | tough | 11.4 |
| 15 | @SEAL | 87 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 85% | Rivers | tough | 13.1 |
| 16 | SFL | 46 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 88% | Rivers | soft | 16.9 |
| 17 | JAXL | 70 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 89% | Rivers | tough | 17.4 |
| 18 | @HOUL | 26 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 52% | Leonard | tough | 5.9 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -2.4 (1.1 → -1.3). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.