A.J. Brown
WR · NE · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 14.7-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
Across all 15 games, A.J. Brown averaged 14.7 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.
Expect about 222 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 99 and 334, with a 35% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
15 games · 14.7 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DALW | 1 | 8 | 0 | 87% | Hurts | soft | 1.8 |
| 2 | @KCW | 5 | 27 | 0 | 97% | Hurts | tough | 7.7 |
| 3 | LAW | 6 | 109 | 1 | 93% | Hurts | soft | 22.9 |
| 4 | @TBW | 2 | 7 | 0 | 96% | Hurts | mid | 2.7 |
| 5 | DENL | 5 | 43 | 0 | 93% | Hurts | tough | 9.3 |
| 6 | @NYGL | 6 | 80 | 0 | 96% | Hurts | soft | 14.0 |
| 7 | @MINW | 4 | 121 | 2 | 92% | Hurts | tough | 28.1 |
| 10 | @GBW | 2 | 13 | 0 | 78% | Hurts | mid | 3.3 |
| 11 | DETW | 7 | 49 | 0 | 93% | Hurts | soft | 11.9 |
| 12 | @DALL | 8 | 110 | 1 | 94% | Hurts | soft | 25.0 |
| 13 | CHIL | 10 | 132 | 2 | 96% | Hurts | soft | 35.2 |
| 14 | @LACL | 6 | 100 | 0 | 97% | Hurts | tough | 16.0 |
| 15 | LVW | 2 | 41 | 1 | 72% | Hurts | mid | 12.1 |
| 16 | @WASW | 9 | 95 | 0 | 87% | Hurts | soft | 18.5 |
| 17 | @BUFW | 5 | 68 | 0 | 89% | Hurts | tough | 11.8 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.5yd (2 → 2.5yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.