TrueSplits

Terry McLaurin

WR · WAS · on the draft board

market valueWR26· 2,181 value· tier 28· ▼ down 225 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
7.2PPG
-4.2 vs 2025 avg (11.4) · 3 games
Not enough gamesSmall sample · under 4 games
⚡ What changed
Since Marcus Mariota took over (Wk 3):14.3 PPGup from 8.5
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Daniels
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

7.2
Avg PPG (split)
7.1
Median week
9.8
Ceiling
4.7
Floor
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
6%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 8 chances
-1.7%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (WAS)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (WAS)
14.1
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.4 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
22%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.1
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (3) to tell whether the 6-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

In games with daniels, McLaurin averaged 7.2 PPG4.2 fewer than the 11.4 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 192
8646% bust14% @1.5x289

Expect about 192 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 86 and 289, with a 46% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

10 games · 11.4 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1NYGW227079%Danielssoft4.7
2@GBL548091%Danielsmid9.8
3LVW374060%Mariotamid10.4
8@KCL354147%Mariotatough14.4
13DENL796151%Mariotatough22.6
14@MINL341062%Danielstough7.1
15@NYGW369175%Mariotasoft15.9
16PHIL353083%Mariotatough8.3
17DALL563086%Johnsonsoft11.3
18@PHIW457070%Johnsontough9.7

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — WASvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
ATL
Wk 16
@MIN
Wk 17
@JAX
Full season
Wk 1
@PHI
Wk 2
@DAL
Wk 3
SEA
Wk 4
IND
Wk 5
NYG
Wk 6
@SF
Wk 8
PHI
Wk 9
LA
Wk 10
@NYG
Wk 11
CIN
Wk 12
@ARI
Wk 13
@TEN
Wk 14
HOU
Wk 15
ATL
Wk 16
@MIN
Wk 17
@JAX
Wk 18
DAL

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.