TrueSplits

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · on the draft board

market valueQB22· 351 value· tier 40· ▲ up 59 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
13.8PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (13.8) · 17 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

13.8
Avg PPG (split)
15.8
Median week
27.6
Ceiling
3.1
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 64% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
4%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 6 chances
-5.3%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (SEA)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (SEA)
+4.3%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.86s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 13.8-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 17 games, Sam Darnold averaged 13.8 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292

Expect about 223 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 110 and 292, with a 75% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

17 games · 13.8 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1SFL15000140100%Darnoldsoft5.4
2@PITW2952200100%Darnoldsoft15.8
3NOW218200068%Darnoldmid16.7
4@ARIW24210240100%Darnoldmid16.1
5TBL3414100100%Darnoldsoft27.6
6@JAXW2952020100%Darnoldtough20.0
7HOUW2131110100%Darnoldmid8.6
9@WASW330410094%Darnoldsoft27.2
10ARIW17811-2090%Darnoldmid4.9
11@LAL27904110100%Darnoldmid4.3
12@TENW24420-10100%Darnoldmid17.7
13MINW128000096%Darnoldtough3.1
14@ATLW2493123087%Darnoldmid22.3
15INDW2710050100%Darnoldmid11.3
16LAW2702270100%Darnoldmid19.5
17@CARW1471120100%Darnoldtough6.1
18@SFW1980090100%Darnoldsoft8.8

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 23

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -2.4% (3.9 → 1.6%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — SEAvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 0 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
@PHI
Wk 16
LA
Wk 17
@CAR
Full season
Wk 1
NE
Wk 2
@ARI
Wk 3
@WAS
Wk 4
LAC
Wk 5
SF
Wk 6
@DEN
Wk 7
KC
Wk 8
CHI
Wk 9
ARI
Wk 10
@LV
Wk 12
@SF
Wk 13
DAL
Wk 14
NYG
Wk 15
@PHI
Wk 16
LA
Wk 17
@CAR
Wk 18
@LA

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.