TrueSplits

Josh Allen

QB · BUF · on the draft board

market valueQB1· 5,717 value· tier 11· ▼ down 308 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
22.8PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (22.8) · 16 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

22.8
Avg PPG (split)
23.1
Median week
42.7
Ceiling
6.9
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 64% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
17%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 33 chances
-2.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (BUF)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (BUF)
+1.5%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.89s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 22.8-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 16 games, Josh Allen averaged 22.8 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 314
15428% bust17% @1.5x409

Expect about 314 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 154 and 409, with a 28% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

16 games · 22.8 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1BALW39420302100%Allenmid38.8
2@NYJW1480059087%Allensoft11.8
3MIAW21330250100%Allensoft23.0
4NOW20921451100%Allenmid24.9
5NEL25321530100%Allentough19.4
6@ATLL18022420100%Allenmid15.4
8@CARW163107283%Allentough23.2
9KCW27310192100%Allentough28.8
10@MIAL3062131096%Allensoft19.3
11TBW31732403100%Allensoft42.7
12@HOUL25302200100%Allenmid8.1
13@PITW12311381100%Allensoft16.7
14CINW25130781100%Allensoft37.8
15@NEW19330480100%Allentough24.5
16@CLEW13000170100%Allentough6.9
17PHIL26200272100%Allenmid23.2

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -2.7% (1.5 → -1.2%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — BUFvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 2 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
CHI
Wk 16
@DEN
Wk 17
@MIA
Full season
Wk 1
@HOU
Wk 2
DET
Wk 3
LAC
Wk 4
NE
Wk 5
@LA
Wk 6
@LV
Wk 8
BAL
Wk 9
@MIN
Wk 10
@NYJ
Wk 11
MIA
Wk 12
KC
Wk 13
@NE
Wk 14
@GB
Wk 15
CHI
Wk 16
@DEN
Wk 17
@MIA
Wk 18
NYJ

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.