TrueSplits

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · on the draft board

market valueQB17· 879 value· tier 36· ▼ down 162 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
16PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (16) · 17 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

16
Avg PPG (split)
17.4
Median week
26.7
Ceiling
3.5
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 60% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
6%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 9 chances
-2.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (TB)
8%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (TB)
-1.6%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.85s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 16-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 17 games, Baker Mayfield averaged 16 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 228
11271% bust5% @1.5x297

Expect about 228 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 112 and 297, with a 71% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

17 games · 16.0 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1@ATLW16730390100%Mayfieldmid22.6
2@HOUW21520330100%Mayfieldmid19.9
3NYJW23310440100%Mayfieldsoft17.7
4PHIL28921130100%Mayfieldmid18.9
5@SEAW37920150100%Mayfieldtough26.7
6SFW25620140100%Mayfieldsoft19.6
7@DETL228110099%Mayfieldsoft11.1
8@NOW152000097%Mayfieldmid4.1
10NEL2733000100%Mayfieldtough22.9
11@BUFL1731139199%Mayfieldtough16.8
12@LAL411219056%Mayfieldmid3.5
13ARIW19410270100%Mayfieldmid14.5
14NOL12211420100%Mayfieldmid11.1
15ATLL2772110100%Mayfieldmid19.2
16@CARL14511490100%Mayfieldtough12.7
17@MIAL34622160100%Mayfieldsoft17.4
18CARW20311310100%Mayfieldtough13.2

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +4.2% (-2.8 → 1.4%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — TBvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 0 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
NO
Wk 16
@ATL
Wk 17
LA
Full season
Wk 1
@CIN
Wk 2
CLE
Wk 3
MIN
Wk 4
GB
Wk 5
@DAL
Wk 6
PIT
Wk 7
@CAR
Wk 8
ATL
Wk 9
@CHI
Wk 11
@DET
Wk 12
CAR
Wk 13
LAC
Wk 14
@BAL
Wk 15
NO
Wk 16
@ATL
Wk 17
LA
Wk 18
@NO

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.