TrueSplits

DJ Moore

WR · BUF · on the draft board

market valueWR23· 2,573 value· tier 26· ▲ up 680 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
10.1PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (10.1) · 17 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

10.1
Avg PPG (split)
8.2
Median week
23.4
Ceiling
0
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: volatileTD-reliance: 28%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
8%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 13 chances
-2.3%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (CHI)
15%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (CHI)
11.4
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.3 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
22%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.6
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 10.1-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 17 games, DJ Moore averaged 10.1 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 186
8349% bust12% @1.5x280

Expect about 186 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 83 and 280, with a 49% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 10.1 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1MINL368084%Williamstough10.6
2@DETL546088%Williamssoft9.6
3DALW421190%Williamssoft12.8
4@LVW438076%Williamsmid7.8
6@WASW342094%Williamssoft8.2
7NOW343087%Williamstough8.2
8@BALL473084%Williamssoft11.6
9@CINW472085%Williamstough23.0
10NYGW00062%Williamssoft0.0
11@MINW118081%Williamstough3.1
12PITW564277%Williamssoft23.4
13@PHIW217091%Williamstough4.7
14@GBL1-4083%Williamsmid0.6
15CLEW469288%Williamsmid22.9
16GBW597195%Williamsmid21.9
17@SFL17092%Williamssoft1.7
18DETL111085%Williamssoft2.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.8yd (3.83yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — BUFvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
CHI
Wk 16
@DEN
Wk 17
@MIA
Full season
Wk 1
@HOU
Wk 2
DET
Wk 3
LAC
Wk 4
NE
Wk 5
@LA
Wk 6
@LV
Wk 8
BAL
Wk 9
@MIN
Wk 10
@NYJ
Wk 11
MIA
Wk 12
KC
Wk 13
@NE
Wk 14
@GB
Wk 15
CHI
Wk 16
@DEN
Wk 17
@MIA
Wk 18
NYJ

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.