TrueSplits

Dalton Schultz

TE · HOU · on the draft board

community activityADP falling
market valueTE23· 143 value· tier 43· ▲ up 42 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
10.2PPG
-0.2 vs 2025 avg (10.5) · 13 games
Likely noise
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Stroud
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

10.2
Avg PPG (split)
8.9
Median week
21.6
Ceiling
4.4
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 9%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
8%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 12 chances
-0.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (HOU)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (HOU)
6.3
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.8 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
15%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.1
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Likely noise: This 1-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±5.6), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.

In games with stroud, Schultz averaged 10.2 PPG0.2 fewer than the 10.5 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 106
5454% bust7% @1.5x157

Expect about 106 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 54 and 157, with a 54% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

17 games · 10.5 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@LAL328054%Stroudmid5.8
2TBL329059%Stroudsoft5.9
3@JAXL539079%Stroudmid8.9
4TENW530085%Stroudsoft8.0
5@BALW560059%Stroudtough11.0
7@SEAL998075%Stroudsoft18.8
8SFW224061%Stroudmid4.4
9DENL677079%Millsmid13.7
10JAXW753177%Millsmid18.3
11@TENW651069%Millssoft11.1
12BUFW18081%Millstough1.8
13@INDW755072%Stroudsoft12.5
14@KCW322074%Stroudtough5.2
15ARIW876179%Stroudsoft21.6
16LVW535171%Stroudmid14.5
17@LACW319078%Stroudtough4.9
18INDW473056%Stroudsoft11.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 16

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.6yd (3.64.2yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — HOUvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Full season
Wk 1
BUF
Wk 2
CIN
Wk 3
@IND
Wk 4
DAL
Wk 5
@TEN
Wk 6
@JAX
Wk 7
NYG
Wk 9
@LAC
Wk 10
@CLE
Wk 11
IND
Wk 12
BAL
Wk 13
@PIT
Wk 14
@WAS
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Wk 18
TEN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.