Aaron Jones
RB · MIN · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (3) to tell whether the 2.2-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
In games with mccarthy, Jones averaged 10.4 PPG — 0.5 more than the 9.9 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 119 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 39 and 194, with a 68% chance of finishing below replacement (148).
Game log
12 games · 9.9 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rush yd | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CHIW | 23 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 50% | McCarthy | soft | 15.7 |
| 2 | ATLL | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43% | McCarthy | mid | 2.3 |
| 8 | @LACL | 15 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 53% | Wentz | tough | 5.0 |
| 9 | @DETW | 78 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 42% | McCarthy | tough | 11.8 |
| 10 | BALL | 47 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 71% | McCarthy | soft | 15.9 |
| 11 | CHIL | 70 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 67% | McCarthy | soft | 11.1 |
| 12 | @GBL | 41 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 66% | McCarthy | mid | 8.7 |
| 13 | @SEAL | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 37%! | Brosmer | tough | 4.5 |
| 14 | WASW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45% | McCarthy | soft | 7.6 |
| 15 | @DALW | 34 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 58% | McCarthy | soft | 9.5 |
| 16 | @NYGW | 85 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 64% | McCarthy | soft | 11.3 |
| 17 | DETW | 53 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 65% | Brosmer | tough | 15.3 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.