Christian McCaffrey
RB · SF · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Likely noise: This 0.8-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±8.2), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.
In games with purdy, McCaffrey averaged 24.1 PPG — 0.4 fewer than the 24.5 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 258 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 84 and 423, with a 22% chance of finishing below replacement (148).
Game log
17 games · 24.5 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rush yd | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @SEAW | 69 | 0 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 76% | Purdy | tough | 23.2 |
| 2 | @NOW | 55 | 0 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 77% | Jones | mid | 22.7 |
| 3 | ARIW | 52 | 0 | 10 | 88 | 0 | 91% | Jones | soft | 24.0 |
| 4 | JAXL | 49 | 0 | 6 | 92 | 1 | 85% | Purdy | tough | 26.1 |
| 5 | @LAW | 57 | 0 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 88% | Jones | mid | 27.9 |
| 6 | @TBL | 54 | 1 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 93% | Jones | mid | 24.1 |
| 7 | ATLW | 129 | 2 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 75% | Jones | mid | 39.1 |
| 8 | @HOUL | 25 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 96% | Jones | tough | 9.8 |
| 9 | @NYGW | 106 | 1 | 5 | 67 | 1 | 86% | Jones | soft | 34.3 |
| 10 | LAL | 30 | 0 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 78% | Jones | mid | 17.6 |
| 11 | @ARIW | 81 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 71% | Purdy | soft | 35.1 |
| 12 | CARW | 89 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 83% | Purdy | soft | 27.2 |
| 13 | @CLEW | 53 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 79% | Purdy | mid | 17.4 |
| 15 | TENW | 73 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 84% | Purdy | mid | 15.7 |
| 16 | @INDW | 117 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 80% | Purdy | tough | 32.6 |
| 17 | CHIW | 140 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 85% | Purdy | soft | 28.1 |
| 18 | SEAL | 23 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 86% | Purdy | tough | 11.7 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +1.1 (-0.9 → 0.3). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.