TrueSplits

Dak Prescott

QB · DAL · on the draft board

market valueQB10· 1,863 value· tier 31· ▲ up 217 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
19.6PPG
+1.1 vs 2025 avg (18.5) · 16 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Prescott
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

19.6
Avg PPG (split)
21.4
Median week
31
Ceiling
6.6
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 61% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
6%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 12 chances
+0.4%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (DAL)
13%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (DAL)
+4.4%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.82s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (1) to tell whether the 18.9-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

In games with prescott, Prescott averaged 19.6 PPG — 1.1 more than the 18.5 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390

Expect about 298 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 146 and 390, with a 33% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

17 games · 18.5 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1@PHIL1880030100%Prescottmid7.8
2NYGW36121170100%Prescottmid22.1
3@CHIL251120086%Prescottsoft12.0
4GBL3193021100%Prescottsoft31.0
5@NYJW23740280100%Prescottsoft28.3
6@CARL26130-10100%Prescotttough22.3
7WASW2643070100%Prescottsoft23.3
8@DENL1880231088%Prescotttough6.6
9ARIL25011340100%Prescottmid15.4
11@LVW26840-40100%Prescotttough24.3
12PHIW3542191100%Prescottmid27.1
13KCW32021-20100%Prescotttough20.6
14@DETL37612140100%Prescottsoft18.4
15MINL2940020100%Prescotttough12.0
16LACL2442014091%Prescotttough19.2
17@WASW30720240100%Prescottsoft22.7
18@NYGL7000-1051%IIImid0.7

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 17

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -5.1% (5.7 → 0.5%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — DALvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 1 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
@LA
Wk 16
JAX
Wk 17
NYG
Full season
Wk 1
@NYG
Wk 2
WAS
Wk 3
BAL
Wk 4
@HOU
Wk 5
TB
Wk 6
@GB
Wk 7
@PHI
Wk 8
ARI
Wk 9
@IND
Wk 10
SF
Wk 11
TEN
Wk 12
PHI
Wk 13
@SEA
Wk 15
@LA
Wk 16
JAX
Wk 17
NYG
Wk 18
@WAS

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.